How it works
Four steps, and the third is the one that makes it different from a bet with a bookmaker.
Pick a side
YES or NO on whether a stock is above the strike when the market expires, in one hour or twenty four.
Watch the pool build
Odds are only how the crowd has split its money so far. They move as new stakes land on either side.
No curve, no slippage
Both sides pay into a pot and the winning side splits the whole thing. There is nothing to trade against, so your own stake cannot move the price on you.
Chainlink calls it
At expiry the price feed decides, on chain. No mod, no dispute, no admin override, and no waiting for someone to agree with you.
Why it is built this way
Three decisions
Pari-mutuel, not an order book
A binary market with a curve punishes the person who is right early, because their own size moves the odds against them. A pot does not.
Settled by a feed, not a person
The market re-reads the Chainlink feed at expiry rather than trusting whatever price was on screen. That is the whole difference between a market and a promise.
Nothing to keep running
A market is opened by its first staker, settlement rides along with the first winning claim, and everyone pays their own gas. No keeper to fund, no subsidy to run out of.
The maths
What a stake pays
Both sides pay into one pot. The winning side splits the whole thing by share, less a fee taken only from the losing side.
payout = (yourStake / winningPot) x (winningPot + losingPot - fee) fee = losingPot x 2%
So the odds you see are the pool as it stands, not a price you are locked into. If the other side fills up after you stake, your payout goes up: you were early on the unpopular answer, which is the only thing this design rewards.
Status
What is real
| Prices | Real. Every strike, tick and settlement is a live Chainlink read on chain 4663, straight from your browser. |
| Feeds | Real. Discovered on chain and verified before use. |
| Settlement | Real. A market re-reads its feed at expiry and takes whatever the chain says. |
| Stakes | Not real. There is no contract yet, so positions live in this browser and settle against the live feed. |
| Gas and collateral | Designed, not deployed. Stakes will be the chain's own ETH and everyone pays their own gas: nothing to launch first, nothing to approve. |